A numerical simulation of residual circulation in Tampa Bay. Part I: Low-frequency temporal variations

The residual (time-average) salinity and circulation in a numerical ocean model of the Tampa Bay estuary are shown to experience significant temporal variation under realistic forcing conditions. A version of the Estuarine Coastal Ocean Model developed for Tampa Bay with 70 by 100 horizontal grid points and 11 sigma levels is examined for the years 2001–2003. Model output variables are averaged over the entire time of the simulation to generate long-term residual fields. The residual axial current is found to be dominated by the buoyancy-driven baroclinic circulation with an outflow (southwestward) at the surface and to the sides of the shipping channel, and an inflow (northeastward) usually occurring subsurface within or above the shipping channel. Averages over 30 d are used to examine variations in the residual fields. During the simulation the average surface salinity near the head of Tampa Bay varies with the freshwater inflow, from 12‰ to 33%. At the bay mouth salinity varies from 30%. to 36%.. A localized measure of the baroclinic circulation in the shipping channel indicates the residual circulation can vary strongly, attaining a magnitude triple the long-term mean value. The baroclinic circulation can be disrupted, going to near zero or even reversing, when the buoyancy-driven flow is weak and the surface winds are to the northeast. Three time periods, representing different environmental conditions, are chosen to examine these results in detail. A scaling argument indicates the relative strength of buoyancy versus wind as ΔρgH²(LC _Dω²)⁻¹, where δρ is head-to-mouth density difference across the bay,g is gravitational acceleration,H is depth,L is bay length,C _D is the surface wind drag coefficient, andw is wind speed. Tampa Bay is usually in the buoyancy dominated regime. The importance of winds in the weak-buoyancy case is demonstrated in an additional simulation without wind stress.     

Context and climate change: an integrated assessment for Barrow, Alaska

An intensive approach to Barrow, Alaska’s adaptations to climate change and variability during recent decades suggests reconsideration of the interconnected roles of science, policy, and decision-making structures. First, profound uncertainties are inherent in unique interactions among the many natural and human factors affecting Barrow’s vulnerability. Science cannot significantly reduce these uncertainties through extensive approaches, but intensive approaches can reconstruct and update local trends, clarify the underlying dynamics, and harvest experience for policy purposes. Second, sound policies to reduce Barrow’s vulnerability to coastal erosion and flooding must incorporate these profound uncertainties and the multiple values of the community. Minimizing vulnerability to climate change is only one of the community’s interests, and must compete with other interests for limited time, attention, funds and other resources. Third, the community itself is in the best position to understand its own context, to decide on sound policies, and to take responsibility for those decisions. In short, local context matters in science, policy, and decision-making structures for adaptation to climate change and variability. Overall, cognitive constraints may be the most important human dimension of climate change. Factoring the global problem into more tractable local problems would make the most of our cognitive capacity.     

Reforestation Programs in Southwest China： Reported Success, Observed Failure, and the Reasons Why

Ever since the disastrous floods of 1998, the Chinese government has used the Natural Forest Protection and Sloping Land Conversion Programs to promote afforestation and reforestation as means to reduce runoff, control erosion, and stabilize local livelihoods. These two ambitious programs have been reported as large-scale successes, contributing to an overall increase in China’s forest cover and to the stated goals of environmental stabilization. A small-scale field study at the project level of the implementation of these two programs in Baiwu Township, Yanyuan County, Sichuan, casts doubt upon the accuracy and reliability of these claims of success; ground observations revealed utter failure in some sites and only marginal success in others. Reasons for this discrepancy are posited as involving ecological, economic, and bureaucratic factors. Further research is suggested to determine whether these discrepancies are merely local aberrations or represent larger-scale failures in reforestation programs.     

Systematic marine conservation planning in data-poor regions: Socioeconomic data is essential

Systematic planning for conservation is highly regarded but relies on spatially explicit data that are lacking in many areas of conservation concern. The decision support tool Marxan is applied to a reef system in the central Philippines where 30 marine protected areas (MPAs) have been established in communities without much use of biophysical data. The intent was to explore how Marxan might assist with the legally required expansion to protect 15% of marine waters, and how existing MPAs might affect that process. Results show that biophysical information alone did not provide much guidance in identifying patterns of conservation importance in areas where the data are poor. Socioeconomic data were needed to distinguish among possible areas for protection; but here, as elsewhere in marine environments, the availability of such data was very limited. In the final analysis, local knowledge and integrated understanding of socioeconomic realities may offer the best spatially explicit information. The 30 existing MPAs, which encompassed a small proportion of the reef system, did not limit future options in developing a suite of MPAs on a broader scale. Rather, they appeared to generate the support for MPAs that is obligatory for any larger zoning effort. In summary, establishing MPAs based on community-driven criteria has biological and social value, but efforts should be made to collect ecological and socioeconomic data to guide the continued creation of MPAs.     

The UV signature of carbon in the solar system

Carbon compounds are ubiquitous in the solar system but are challenging to study using remote sensing due to the mostly bland spectral nature of these species in the traditional visible‐near‐infrared regime. In contrast, carbonaceous species are spectrally active in the ultraviolet (UV) but have largely not been considered for studies of solar system surfaces. We compile existing UV data of carbon compounds—well‐studied in contemplation of the ISM extinction “bump”—to review trends in UV spectral behavior. Thermal and/or irradiation processing of carbon species results in the loss of H and ultimately graphitization. Graphitization is shown to produce distinct spectral features in the UV, which are predicted to be more readily detected in the inner solar system, whereas outer solar system bodies are expected to be more dominated by less‐processed carbon compounds. Throughout the solar system, we can thus consider a “carbon continuum” where the more evolved carbons in the inner solar system exhibit a stronger UV absorption feature and associated far‐UV rise. We compare carbon spectral models with spacecraft data of two bodies from different points in the carbon continuum, Ceres and Iapetus. We find that the apparent strong far‐UV upturn in Ceres’ spectrum (in the 150–200 nm range) can be explained by an anthracite‐like species while Iapetus’ spectrum features a reflectance peak consistent with polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. We make generalized predictions for UV spectral characteristics in other regions of the solar system.     

Europa’s disk-resolved ultraviolet spectra: Relationships with plasma flux and surface terrains

The full set of high-resolution observations from the Galileo Ultraviolet Spectrometer (UVS) is analyzed to look for spectral trends across the surface of Europa. We provide the first disk-resolved map of the 280 nm SO₂ absorption feature and investigate its relationship with sulfur and electron flux distributions as well as with surface features and relative surface ages. Our results have implications for exogenic and endogenic sources. The large-scale pattern in SO₂ absorption band depth is again shown to be similar to the pattern of sulfur ion implantation, but with strong variations in band depth based on terrain. In particular, the young chaos units show stronger SO₂ absorption bands than expected from the average pattern of sulfur ion flux, suggesting a local source of SO₂ in those regions, or diapiric heating that leads to a sulfur-rich lag deposit.While the SO₂ absorption feature is confined to the trailing hemisphere, the near UV albedo (300-310 nm) has a global pattern with a minimum at the center of the trailing hemisphere and a maximum at the center of the leading hemisphere. The global nature of the albedo pattern is suggestive of an exogenic source, and several possibilities are discussed. Like the SO₂ absorption, the near UV albedo also has local variations that depend on terrain type and age.     

Do people “personally experience” global warming,and if so how,and does it matter?

For most people, the direct and personally observable signals of climate change should be difficult to detect amid the variability of everyday weather. Yet, previous research has shown that some people believe they have personally experienced global warming. Through four related studies, our paper sheds light on what signals of global warming some people believe they are detecting, why, and whether or not it matters. These studies were conducted using population survey and climatic data from a single county in Michigan. Study 1 found that 27% of the county's adult residents felt that they had personally experienced global warming. Study 2 – based on content analysis of people's open-ended responses – found that the most frequently described personal experiences of global warming were changes in seasons (36%), weather (25%), lake levels (24%), animals and plants (20%), and snowfall (19%). Study 3 – based on NOAA climatic data – found that most, but not all, of these detected signals are borne out in the climatic record. Study 4 – using the survey data – found that personal experience of global warming matters in that it predicts perceptions of local risk of global warming, controlling for demographics, political affiliation, and cultural beliefs about national policy outcomes. We conclude that perceived personal experience of global warming appears to heighten people's perception of the risks, likely through some combination of direct experience, vicarious experience (e.g., news media stories), and social construction.